# Research

Terms defined: Brook's Law, Myers-Briggs Type Indicator, OCEAN model, Scottish verdict, code metric, cognitive bias, cognitive dimensions of notation, dead code, functional magnetic resonance imaging, goal-question-metric, root cause

Researchers have been studying programs and programmers since at least the 1960s; while there are many unknowns, they have learned a lot about what works and what doesn't. Sadly, most people in industry still don't know what we know or even what kinds of questions we have answers for. One reason is their belief that software engineering research is divorced from real-world problems; another is that many programmers haven't done any science themselves since high school. The average biology students does thirty to forty experiments during their undergraduate degree; the average computer science student may only do one, so it's not surprising that computer science graduates don't understand or value the scientific method.

A third reason is that many people would rather fail than change. People cling to creationism, refuse to accept the reality of anthropogenic climate change, or insist that vaccines cause autism. Given that, it's not surprising that many programmers continue to act as if a couple of quotations from a tech entrepreneur who struck it lucky constitute "proof".

This chapter therefore presents a few evidence-based results that are relevant to the kind of work you may be doing in your project and that your instructor might want to incorporate into your course Fagerholm2017. If you find them interesting and want to dig further, describes the methods software engineering researchers use. As with all research, though, some caution is required when interpreting results:

Theories change as more data becomes available.
Software engineering is a comparatively young discipline—the term itself wasn't used until 1968—so it would be surprising if everything we think we know turned out to be true.
Most of these studies' subjects are WEIRD.
They are from Western, Education, Industrialized, Rich, and Democratic societies Henrich2010, and may not be representative of the other 99% of humanity.
The data we have doesn't capture everything.
Aranda2009 found that in every one of the bugs they traced, some key insight or action wasn't captured digitally. Similarly, Herzig2013 carefully examined thousands of bug reports from several projects and found that many mis-report themselves in ways that will inevitably skew the results of simplistic analysis.

Historically, juries in Scotland were allowed to return one of three verdicts: innocent, guilty, or not proven. The world would be a better place if we were all more comfortable saying, "I don't know," and with changing our minds as new evidence comes in.

## What Do We Know About Programmer Productivity?

Let's start our exploration of research results with the often-repeated claim that some programmers are ten times more productive than others. Is it actually true? The short answer is, "It's complicated." As Prechelt2019 shows, the answer depends on what exactly the question is intended to mean. Looking at exactly the same data, you could conclude that some programmers are 105 times more productive than others—except this doesn't take into account whether people's code actually works or what language they were using.

If you only look at one language, the ratio goes down to 17:1, but that's still comparing the very best to the very worst. Now the discussion starts to get statistical: if you compare the median of the slower half of programmers with the median of the top 10%, the ratio is 5:1 or 11:1, depending on whether you use everyone in the sample or restrict it to those who used the same language respectively.

Sadowski2019a summarizes of what we know, and more importantly, how to think about the problem. The chapter Sadowski2019b lays out a three-axis framework for discussion based on the goal-question-metric approach. The more recent SPACE framework looks at Satisfaction, Performance, Activity, Communication, and Efficiency Forsgren2018,Forsgren2021. However productivity is measured, it's important to remember Goodhart's Law: as soon as you use some measure to evaluate people it ceases to be a good measure because people will start to game the system. For example, Gitinabard2020 reports that it's possible to classify student software teams as collaborative, cooperative, or solo-submit by analyzing the history of their version control repositories. If these measures are ever used for grading, students will immediately start making extra commits (or fewer, or whatever else is needed) in order to get the "right" profile.

Another thing to keep in mind is the way that privilege defines performance. People naturally value the things they're good at, so the people who define the criteria for high performance tend to emphasize things that just happen to give them high scores. As Kenneth Wesson wrote in Littky2004, "If poor inner-city children consistently outscored children from wealthy suburban homes on standardized tests, is anyone naïve enough to believe that we would still insist on using these tests as indicators of success?"

### What don't you want to know?

Begel2014 asked one set of developers what questions they most wanted researchers to answer, then asked another set of developers to rate those questions. Respondents favored questions about how customers typically use their applications, but were opposed questions related to assessing the performance of individual employees or comparing them with one another; Huijgens2020 found that data scientists viewed most possible research topics the same way.

## What Do We Know About Programming Style?

As we mentioned in , Stefik2013 found that languages like C, Java, and Perl were as hard for people to learn as a language with a randomly designed syntax, while languages like Ruby and Python were significantly easier to learn. This result is one of several showing that a programming language is a user interface that can be studied and evaluated like any other.

For example, Stylos2007 assessed how programmers use APIs with required parameters in objects' constructors as opposed to parameterless default constructors. They hypothesized that required parameters would create more usable and self-documenting APIs by guiding programmers toward the correct use of objects and preventing errors. Contrary to expectations, programmers strongly preferred and were more effective with APIs that did not require constructor parameters. They then analyzed subjects' behavior using the cognitive dimensions framework, which showed that that requiring constructor parameters interfered with common learning strategies.

Binkley2012 reported that reading and understanding code is fundamentally different from reading prose: "…the more formal structure and syntax of source code allows programmers to assimilate and comprehend parts of the code quite rapidly independent of style. In particular…beacons and program plans play a large role in comprehension." It also found that experienced developers are relatively unaffected by identifier style, so just to use consistent style in all examples. Since most languages have style guides (e.g., PEP8 for Python) and tools to check that code follows these guidelines. In contrast, Schankin2018 found that:

With descriptive identifier names, developers spent more time in the lines of code before the actual defect occurred and changed their reading direction less often, finding the semantic defect about 14% faster than with shorter but less descriptive identifier names. These effects disappeared when developers searched for a syntax error, i.e., when no in-depth understanding of the code was required. Interestingly, the style of identifier names had a clear impact on program comprehension for more experienced developers but not for less experienced developers.

More recently, Floyd2017,Krueger2020,Peitek2021 have used fMRI to look at what programmers' brain do when they are reading or writing code. The main findings are that reading code is cognitively different from reading prose, but that the more experienced programmers are, the less of a difference there is. This corroborates earlier work with eye tracking like Hansen2013, which also found that experience increases performance in most cases, but can actually hurt performance when assumptions about what code is supposed to do are violated (i.e., when the eye sees what the brain expects).

Kernighan1999 wrote, "Programmers are often encouraged to use long variable names regardless of context. This is a mistake: clarity is often achieved through brevity." Lots of programmers believe this, but Hofmeister2017 found that using full words in variable names led to an average of 19% faster comprehension compared to letters and abbreviations. In contrast, Beniamini2017 found that using single-letter variable names didn't affect novices' ability to modify code. This may be because their programs are shorter than professionals' or because some single-letter variable names have implicit types and meanings. For example, most programmers assume that i, j, and n are integers and that s is a string, while x, y, and z are either floating-point numbers or integers more or less equally.

Similarly, programmers have argued for decades about whether variables' data types should have to be declared or not, usually based on their personal experience as professionals rather than on any kind of data. Hanenberg2013,Endrikat2014,Fischer2015 found that requiring variable type declarations does add some complexity to programs, but it pays off by acting as documentation for a method's use—in particular, by forestalling questions about what's available and how to use it. Gao2017 looked at how many bugs in JavaScript programs would have been caught if the code had been written in TypeScript (which adds types), and came up with a figure of 15%, which is either low (one in seven) or high (sales tax) depending on how you want to look at it.

## What Can We Learn From Analyzing Code?

If engineering is applied science, then Eichberg2015 is a great example of software engineering. In it, the authors show that it's possible to identify a wide range of problems in code by comparing the actual flow graph (which is the set of all possible paths through the program) with the abstract interpretation flow graph (which is the set of all paths once possible data values are taken into account). To make this more concrete, the control flow graph for:

01: x = 0
02: if x > 0:
03:     x = 1


includes the statement on line 3, but the abstract interpretation flow graph doesn't, because there's no way it could ever be executed given the possible value(s) of x. Code paths that are never executed signal dead code, which in turn usually signals logic errors, such as use of and instead of or in a logical test. The results from this kind of analysis are impressive: the authors found that a lot of code in widely-used libraries is littered with unnecessary null checks, and that even experienced developers don't seem to understand Boolean operators as well as they should.

Program analysis can tell us many other things as well, all of which should influence the design of future systems. For example, Python, JavaScript, and many other languages are dynamically typed, while statically typed languages like Java that restrict variables to particular types of data. Akerblom2015 looked at how often Python programs actually rely on dynamic typing, and found that it was taken advantage of in only 2.5% of cases. Adding generics (i.e., type declarations like Array<int>) only makes half a percent of difference. This doesn't mean that languages shouldn't include more complex type systems, but it does (or should) mean that the onus is on their designers to show that the complexity is worthwhile.

Meanwhile, lots of people say that copy-pasting code is bad practice: if you find yourself creating code clones, you should put the repeated code in its own method and call it from all the original copies (). But when Kapser2008 explored why developers create code clones, they found that code clones are OK in some cases:

…the results of the case study identify a set of patterns that are most often harmful, namely verbatim snippets and parameterized code. While there were several examples of good usage of these clone patterns, the majority were deemed harmful. This may be an indication that developers should avoid this form of cloning. On the other hand several patterns were found to be mostly good: boiler-plating, replicate and specialize, and cross-cutting concerns. While not always good, when used with care (as with any form of design or implementation decision) these patterns are more likely to achieve an overall beneficial effect on the software system.

## What Do We Know About the Quality of Software?

The answer to the question in this section's title is, "A lot, and it's not good news." For example, Nakshatri2016 looked at how exceptions are actually used in Java programs. Rather than being used to make software more robust, exceptions are either ignored or used as a debugging aid. For example, the most common catch block is one that logs the error rather than trying to recover from it; the next most common are to do nothing at all (20% of cases), or to convert the checked exception into an unchecked exception so that it can be ignored. Similarly, most programmers ignore Java's elaborate exception hierarchy and simply catch Exception (78%) or Throwable (84%) rather than any of their more specific subclasses.

In a similar vein, Yuan2015 analyzed the root cause of around 200 confirmed failures in large distributed systems. They report many findings, but the key one is that 92% of the catastrophic system failures are the result of incorrect handling of non-fatal errors explicitly signaled in software, i.e., the software said, "Something's wrong," but nothing was in place to handle the error. In 58% of those cases, the underlying faults could easily have been detected through simple testing of error-handling code. The lesson is clear: make sure your tests check that your program does the right thing when things go wrong.

One reason things go wrong is that developers don't make use of the tools they have. Beller2019 monitored 2,443 software engineers over the course of 2.5 years in four IDEs. They found that:

…half of the developers in our study does not test; developers rarely run their tests in the IDE; only once they start testing, do they do it heftily; most programming sessions end without any test execution; only a quarter of test cases is responsible for three quarters of all test failures; 12% of tests show flaky behavior; Test-Driven Development is not widely practiced; and software developers only spend a quarter of their time engineering tests, whereas they think they test half of their time.

Another factor that affects quality is how comprehensible the software is: in particular, how easy or difficult it is to set it up. Xu2015 looked at how often various configuration parameters are actually used, and how correctly; they report that:

• Only a small percentage (6.1%-16.7%) of configuration parameters are set by the majority of users; a significant percentage (up to 54.1%) of parameters are rarely set by any user.

• A small percentage (1.8%-7.8%) of parameters are configured by more than 90% of the users.

• A significant percentage (up to 47.4%) of numeric parameters have no more than five distinct settings among all the users' settings. Similarly, for enumerative parameters with many options, typically only two to three of the options are actually used by the users, indicating once again the over-designed flexibility.

• Too many knobs do come with a cost: users encounter tremendous difficulties in knowing which parameters should be set among the large configuration space. This is reflected by the following two facts: (1) a significant percentage (up to 48.5%) of configuration issues are about users' difficulties in finding or setting the parameters to obtain the intended system behavior; (2) a significant percentage (up to 53.3%) of configuration errors are introduced due to users' staying with default values incorrectly.

That said, most software actually does run despite the fact that programmers don't do things the "right" way. One possible reason comes from the study of trivial packages reported in Abdalkareem2017, which looked at 230,000 NPM packages and 38,000 JavaScript applications. It turns out that less than half of the trivial packages include tests; instead, they are "deployment tested", i.e., their authors fix the breakages that users report, so that while they might not work in all situations, they work in all situations that matter.

### What can't we learn?

Many people have put forward code metrics that are supposed to measure the complexity or likely number of bugs in a piece of software. However, ElEmam2001 found that these metrics are no better at predicting things than simply counting the number of lines of code, because the longer the program is, the more likely it is to contain whatever kinds of problems those more sophisticated metrics are looking for.

## What Do We Know About Software Projects?

If there is one "law" of software development that most practitioners have heard of, it is Brooks' Law: adding people to a late project makes it later. Meneely2011 explores the correlation between adding people to a team and the quality of the software the team works on. The paper reports that adding people is correlated with a later increase in software quality, but adding them too quickly (that is, at a faster pace than in previous months) is correlated with a decrease in quality. This is puzzling because theoretically, adding people to a project increases its coordination costs, which in turn should impact all metrics of team success negatively, including quality.

Meneely2011 isn't an isolated finding: Mockus2010 found that more newcomers are not correlated with more defects, which supports this finding. One possibility is that newcomers are assigned easy tasks, and so they can't really break things too dramatically or in a way that won't get caught internally in time. Another possibility is that the product has matured over time—that software quality would go up no matter the team size simply because there's less new functionality added as time goes on.

Posnett2011 present an interesting twist on this. In the open source projects they studied, they found that although code changes in general are associated with future defect fixing activity, as we might expect, those changes that correspond to new feature development and to code improvements are not. That's interesting and counter-intuitive—one would expect new feature code commits to be among the buggiest. The authors offer a possible explanation: well-established open source projects tend to be quite conservative, and new feature code is heavily scrutinized, so that most defects are found and sorted out before the code is integrated.

Another surprising result comes from Khomh2012. They examined the effects of Mozilla's switch from a yearly (or longer) release cycle to a much more frequent cycle. Their raw material is bug and crash data; their conclusions are:

1. Users experience crashes earlier during the execution of versions developed following a rapid release model.

2. The Firefox rapid release model fixes bugs faster than using the traditional model, but fixes proportionally less bugs.

3. With a rapid release model, users adopt new versions faster compared to the traditional release model.

#3 is good news; #2 is (mostly) good, but #1 is a puzzle for which the authors don't have an explanation.

One of the many reasons software projects fail is poor estimation, and one of the reasons people estimate badly is that they don't keep track of what's happened before. McIntosh2011 provides a baseline for both how much effort is required to keep the build system in working order, and how much those figures can be improved:

…despite the difference in scale, the build system churn rate is comparable to that of the source code, and build changes induce more relative churn on the build system than source code changes induce on the source code. Furthermore, build maintenance yields up to a 27% overhead on source code development and a 44% overhead on test development. Up to 79% of source code developers and 89% of test code developers are significantly impacted by build maintenance, yet investment in build experts can reduce the proportion of impacted developers to 22% of source code developers and 24% of test code developers.

How reliable are results like these? To find out, Anda2009 had four teams build the same software independently and in parallel so that they could look at which outcomes were reproducible and which were not:

• High reproducibility: actual lead time and usability

• Medium reproducibility: planned development process and cost

• Low reproducibility: firm price, planned schedule, schedule overrun, reliability, and maintainability

Putting something in the "low" category here doesn't mean that it was uniformly poor. Instead, it means that there was wide variation, i.e., that results were unpredictable. Their results match software engineering folklore, and are a guide to what research should focus on improving.

## What Do We Know About the Psychology of Programming?

Do happy programmers produce better code? If they do, then focusing on their tools may be missing the point: it may be their environment and colleagues that matter more. Unfortunately, researchers haven't yet discovered how to induce happiness, so a randomized controlled trial isn't an option. Instead, Graziotin2014 measured emotional state using a questionnaire developed by psychology researchers. They divided up the study participants into positive and non-positive groups, then looked at how those groups performed on an analytical task and a creative task. The positive group did better at the analytic task, but there was no statistically significant difference on the creative task.

The broader topic of personality also comes up in discussions of pair programming: do you need to be an extrovert to reap its benefits, is the contrast in personality with your peer important, and so on. Several studies have addressed these questions; Hannay2010 is a good place to start reading about them. As they say, "We found no strong indications that personality affects pair programming performance or pair gain in a consistent manner." They go on to suggest that industry and research should "focus on other predictors of performance, including expertise and task complexity" instead, as these factors overshadow any personality effects.

### Myers-Briggs and other danger signs

The Myers-Briggs Type Indicator advertises itself as personality profiling tool. It is popular on dating sites and some companies use it as part of their interview process—despite the fact that it is complete bullshit. Half or more of people who repeat the test within a few weeks get a different personality classification, it fails to predict job performance, and its categories are based on outdated (and very Western-centric) psychological theories. If a potential employer asks you to do it as part of the interview process, ask them if they would like a horoscope as well.

Myers-Briggs has given the whole notion of personality profiling a bad reputation, but there are models of personality that have a scientific basis and are repeatable and cross-cultural. For example, the OCEAN model has five dimensions: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. Studies of twins and other research has found that about half of personality variation comes from genetics and about half from environment, and work like Hannay2010 has used this model in studies of programmers.

## What Do We Know About Innate Ability?

The most important result in this chapter comes from Patitsas2016. Its abstract is worth repeating in full:

Although it has never been rigourously demonstrated, there is a common belief that CS grades are bimodal. We statistically analyzed 778 distributions of final course grades from a large research university, and found only 5.8% of the distributions passed tests of multimodality. We then devised a psychology experiment to understand why CS educators believe their grades to be bimodal.

We showed 53 CS professors a series of histograms displaying ambiguous distributions and asked them to categorize the distributions. A random half of participants were primed to think about the fact that CS grades are commonly thought to be bimodal; these participants were more likely to label ambiguous distributions as bimodal. Participants were also more likely to label distributions as bimodal if they believed that some students are innately predisposed to do better at CS. These results suggest that bimodal grades are instructional folklore in CS, caused by confirmation bias and instructor beliefs about their students.

In plain language, if some people are born programmers and others aren't, there ought to be two humps in the grade distribution. There isn't, but if people believe some people are "just better" at coding, they're more likely to see two humps. These beliefs matter because they are a self-fulfilling prophecy Brophy1983: if a teacher believes that student A is more likely to succeed than student B, they will give student A more attention, which makes them more likely to succeed, which confirms the teacher's bias.

## Where Should We Go Next?

Some of the most interesting work in software engineering today is coming from people studying how we think when we program and how the ways we think should shape the tools we build. For example, Johnson2020 reverse engineers the cognitive foundations of user interface guidelines, while Chattopadhyay2020 found that roughly 70% of the actions programmers later undo could be attributed to cognitive bias.

You don't have to do a PhD to do this kind of research: you can gather and analyze data on your own, or collaborate with people in academia. It takes time and there are frequent setbacks, but the same is true of programming, and being the first person in the world to understand something is a feeling like no other.