Terms defined: confounding variables, control group, dark matter developer, data mining, double blind, placebo, pre-registration, qualitative method, quasi-experiment, treatment group
Back in 2016 I tweeted, "If anyone has data showing Excel is more error-prone than MATLAB/Python/R once you normalize for hours spent learning it, please post." It was clear from the responses and from other discussion online that most programmers believe this, but I'm not really sure what "this" is:
- There are more errors in published results created with Excel than in results created with scripting languages like MATLAB, Python, and R.
- Given that many more people use Excel, that's like saying that people in China have more heart attacks than people in Luxembourg.
- Results calculated with Excel are more likely to be wrong than results calculated with scripting languages.
- This is what I had in mind when I tweeted, and I don't think the answer is
obvious. Yes, there are lots of examples of people botching spreadsheets,
but there's also a lot of buggy code out there. (Flon's Axiom states, "There is not now, nor has there ever
been, nor will there ever be, any programming language in which it is the
least bit difficult to write bad code.")
And even if this claim is true, correlation isn't causation. I think that people who do statistics programmatically have probably invested more time in mastering their tools than people who use spreadsheets. Any differences in error rates could easily be due to differences in time spent in reflective practice.
- People who are equally proficient in Excel and scripting languages are more likely to make mistakes in Excel.
- This formulation corrects the flaw identified above, but is nonsensical, since the only meaningful definition of "equally proficient" is "use equally well".
- Spreadsheets are intrinsically more error-prone than scripting languages
- I have heard people claim that spreadsheets don't show errors as clearly,
they're harder to test, it's harder to figure out what calculations are
actually being done, or they themselves are buggier than scripting
languages' math libraries. These are all plausible, but may all be red
herrings. Yes, it's hard to write unit tests for spreadsheets, but it's
possible: Hermans2016 found that 8% of spreadsheets included
if(A1<>5, "ERROR", "OK"). I'd be surprised if more than 8% of people who do statistics in Python or R regularly write unit tests for their scripts, so the fact that they could is irrelevant.
To be clear, I'm not defending or recommending spreadsheets. But if programming really is a better way to do crunch numbers, we ought to be able to use science to prove it. And to do that, we have to know what methods we have at our disposal and what they're good for.
The first method that empirical research uses is controlled experiments: subjects are given a task and some aspect of their performance is measured. Subjects are typically divided into a control group (who do things as normal) and a treatment group (who do things in an alternative way). If the difference between the groups is large enough statistically, the experimenter can say that the treatment probably has an effect on outcomes.
There are several traps in this for the unwary DeOliveiraNeto2019:
- Experimenter bias.
- People have many biases, both conscious and unconscious. In order to make sure that these don't inadvertently affect the results, subjects should be assigned to groups at random. Going even further, experiments in medicine are often double blind: neither the subject nor the person administering the treatment knows which subjects are getting the new heart medication and which are getting a placebo. It's usually not possible to achieve this when doing software engineering experiments.
- Significance hacking.
- If you measure enough things and look for enough correlations, you will almost certainly find something that passes a test for statistical significance. For example, there is a strong correlation between the number of letters in winning words in spelling competitions and the number of people killed by venomous spiders Vigen2015. To guard against this, researchers should pre-register their analyses, i.e., say in advance what they're going to compare against what, and then use various statistical techniques that require a higher standard of proof when they are checking more possible combinations.
- Failure to publish negative results.
- An experiment isn't a failure if it doesn't find something that is statistically significant: ruling something out is just as useful as finding something new. However, negative results are not as exciting (and not as beneficial to a researcher's career), so they often go unreported.
Getting a few undergraduates in a lab for an hour each is easy; getting professional programmers to do something new or different for several months is not, but this doesn't mean that controlled experiments have to be expensive. If you have an idea you want to test, gather a little data and use that to evaluate the plausibility of your idea. If you need to be really confident, build up the evidence base over time in multiple experiments, increasing the sample size and improving the methodology each time to get a stronger answer for a more specific question.
Researchers often rely on quasi-experiments when doing this, i.e., they look at pre-existing groups like programmers who have decided for themselves to use a new IDE against ones who have not. Quasi-experiments are cheaper and easier to set up, but researchers must be careful to account for confounding variables. For example, are programmers who choose to use an IDE younger and therefore less experienced than ones who use legacy text editors? If so, how does that difference skew the results?
Quasi-experiments blend into the second major research approach, which uses statistics and machine learning to find patterns in whatever data the researcher can get her hands on. Doing this is called data mining, and most studies of this kind make use of the wealth of information available online at sites like GitHub]github and Stack Overflow or from millions of crash reports collected online Glerum2009. Data mining has produced many valuable insights, but has challenges of its own. The largest of these is that people who work in the open aren't typical, so any results we get from studying them must be interpreted cautiously.
One problem with data mining is that once again, correlation doesn't imply causation. Another is that we usually don't know whether the data we have access to is representative. In 2012, Scott Hanselman coined the term dark matter developers to describe programmers who don't blog, don't answer questions in online forums, don't have their work in public repositories, and so on. Just as dark matter makes up most of the universe, dark matter developers make up most of our industry, and just as the matter we can see is vanishingly atypical, so too are developers who radiate information.
One reason for this is that the web ranges from unwelcoming to actively hostile for people from under-represented groups Ford2016,May2019. Unfortunately, in-person workplaces are often no better: many are filled with small signs that make many people feel out of place Cheryan2009. takes a closer look at these issues.
A cautionary tale
Zeller2011 did what too many researchers in too many fields do on a regular basis: throw some data at some machine learning algorithms and then claim that whatever comes out the other end is significant. Luckily for us, they did it on purpose to make a point.
They took data on code and errors for the Eclipse IDE and correlated the two to find good predictors of bugs. Which sounds sensible—except they did the correlation at the level of individual characters. It turns out that 'i', 'r', 'o', and 'p' are most strongly correlated with errors. What is a sensible researcher to do facing these findings? Take those letters out of the keyboard, of course. The authors then go over everything that's wrong with their approach, from lack of theoretical grounding to dishonest use of statistics. Before you read too much research, make sure to read this.
The third set of approaches are called qualitative methods, and involve close analysis of a small number of cases to tease out common patterns. Articles like Sharp2016 do an excellent job of explaining how these methods work and what their strengths and limitations are.
Wish I knew then what I know now
My classes in engineering taught me to look down on anything that wasn't a controlled laboratory experiment whose results could be neatly displayed in a scatterplot or bar chart. It wasn't until I was in my thirties that I accepted that the "fuzzy" methods of the social sciences were just as rigorous when used properly, and the only ones that could produce certain valuable insights.
Washburn2016 demonstrates the kinds of insights these methods can produce. They analyzed 155 postmortem reviews of game projects to identify characteristics of game development, link the characteristics to positive and negative experiences, and distill a set of best practices and pitfalls for game development. Their description of their method is worth repeating in full:
Initially, we started with 12 categories of common aspects of development… In order to identify additional categories, we performed 3 iterations of analysis and identification. The first week, we each read and analyzed 3 postmortem reviews each, classifying the items discussed in each section into the 12 predetermined categories of common aspects that impact development. While analyzing these reviews, we identified additional categories of items that went right or wrong during development, and revisited the reviews we had already analyzed to update the categorization of items. For the next two weeks we repeated this process of analyzing postmortems and identifying categories, analyzing 10 postmortems each in week 2, and 15 postmortems each in week
- After each iteration, we discussed the additional categories we identified, and determined if they were viable.
After our initial iterations for identifying additional categories, we had completed the analysis of 60 postmortem reviews. We then stopped identifying new categories, and began analyzing postmortems at a combined rate of about 40 postmortem reviews per week. After each week we reviewed what we had done to ensure we both had the same understanding of each category. This continued until we had analyzed all the postmortem reviews.
The Fourth Tradition
"Once the rockets are up, who cares where they come down?
That's not my department!" says Wernher von Braun
— Tom Lehrer
Tedre2008 describes three traditions that have shaped how we think about computing: the mathematical, which focuses on algorithms and proofs; the scientific, which studies programs and programmers empirically; and the engineering tradition, which centers the fact that computing matters because we can actually build useful things.
That paper changed how I think about our field, but in the past few years I have realized that another point of view is just as important, though not as well respected. It draws on humanities and social sciences to explore questions like, "Who does this help?", "Who does this hurt?", and, "Who decides?" Just as the most interesting software engineering research these days is look at how the way we think interacts with the way we program (), the most interesting thinking about computing as a whole is coming from people who have outgrown the "Wernher von Braun" mentality of Lehrer's song.